Monday, November 20, 2006

My thoughts on how the BCS looks

On a Playoff System -
Everyone has beaten the who scheduled who, who lost to who and who would lose to who arguments to death. No one gets anywhere. That is why CFB needs some sort of playoff. No one knows who could beat Michigan because not everyone plays Michigan, same can be said for Ohio State. There has to be some sort of playoff system. A head to head system.

On the National Championship teams-
I agree with Urb:
Michigan should not get two chances. No one else does. You lose. You drop.

"I think that'd be unfair to Ohio State, and I think it'd be unfair to the country," Meyer said. "I just don't believe that's the right thing to do. You're going to tell Ohio State they have to go beat the same team twice, which is extremely difficult, and you're going to tell teams that played their hearts out [that they can't play for the national title] ... they [Michigan] had their chances. Ohio State is No. 1, someone has a chance to go get No. 1.

"If that [rematch] does happen, it's over. All the presidents need to get together immediately and put together a playoff system, I mean like now, January, or whenever to get that done."

Meyer is upset because he watched ESPN on Saturday night and heard the analysts and experts lobbying for a rematch. The teams that play in the BCS title game on Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz., should be determined on the field, and not by a talking head, Meyer said.

"I've seen the lobbying begin," he said. "I start seeing these nationwide polls, sportswriters, fans, media, everybody's going to get their hands on this thing, and I don't know how it's ... I would say that if it were up to the 117 Division I-A coaches, certainly it would not be a rematch."


RIGHT ON!
THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY MEAN SATURDAY'S GAME BETWEEN OSU AND MICHIGAN MEANT NOTHING! NO DROPS IN POLLS. LETS JUST GIVE THOSE TEAMS A REMATCH. DON'T LET ANY OTHER SCHOOLS HAVE A CHANCE. MAKE OHIO STATE BEAT THE SAME TEAM TWICE IN ORDER TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WHILE MICHIGAN WOULD ONLY HAVE BEAT OSU ONCE!

On The Most Recent BCS polls-
I believe USC and Florida are still favored to play OSU in the championship
Here are what the BCS Standings look like:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Notre Dame
6. Arkansas
7. West Virginia
8. Wisconsin
9. Louisville
10. LSU

I will not discuss strength of schedule because I believe Florida would win hands down. All the pundits would agree as well, because at the beginning of this year some were claiming our schedule may be the toughest ever created. I kid you not.

Onto the top spots!
1.Ohio State is a lock because they haven't lost. But I think they are beatable. Can someone get a chance at them?

2. The fight for number TWO

- Michigan had their chance. In order for them to get a rematch USC, Arkansas and Florida would all have to lose. It does not really matter what Notre Dame does because they have already lost to Michigan.

- USC has a legitimate argument particularly with their win over Arky. But that was the first game of the year, and a whole different story. USC must win out convincingly and hope all the teams they have beaten keep winning to keep their strength of schedule high. With that being said, I think a case can be made for UF or USC, if both win out. (SEC already has 9 bowl eligible teams.)

On a side note, I think USC's wins look less meaningful and one loss look more meaningful when their winners start losing and their one loss keeps losing. Oregon State really is a bad team. And Nebraska just isn't very good either.

- Florida, my school of study, is of course my choice for the National Champ game. Only if they win their last two games of the season though. I think both USC and Florida jump Michigan because we keep playing quality opponents and Michigan's season filled with only three quality opponents all year stopped on Saturday.

Florida has the schedule to compete with anyone. We lost away to a BCS top 15 team by three points and had piped in electronic music, home-cooked refs and the worst call in officiating this year go against us. We dominated the first half, gave up some yards in the second. Our defense did not allow a touchdown. And for good measure UF threw the ball away, on the last play, trying to find a way to the endzone. Who would have thought that play would decide if we would be in the MNC game this year? Auburn is a darn good team, but we shoulda, coulda, woulda won.

Florida still plays FSU, the most vicious rivalry in CFB with Bowden, the winningest coach in CFB. And the SEC Champ game, the hardest conference championship game in the country.

-Arkansas looks to be a whole different team after that first game they laid a turd at home. McFadden and Jones are running away from the competition. They have a go-to receiver in Monk. And Casey Dick looks to be settled in as their QB. Take a look at their schedule and you'll see more impressive wins then Michigan, OSU and especially Notre Dame. That being said I still hope we beat those guys in Atlanta.

- Notre Dame is a long shot and although Notre Dame is likely better than their game against Michigan, it doesn't look to good for them. Their schedule really is embarrassing. We may have a 1-AA team this year but you have the service academies every year. That's pretty much your conference. And your championship trophy is the Commander-in-Chief award. There is a reason those teams suck and you beat them every year.(Make no mistake it's not a rivalry.) They are busy protecting the good ol' U.S. from whatever the threat is this week. But you keep scheduling them to play football?

To the benefit of Notre Dame, Arkansas is likely in the same boat as them. Both lost big to teams your competing against for the number two spot. That makes it real tough for you to jump them. But this weekend I am Notre Dame's biggest fan. If you win who knows how far you move up? ( And conveniently, how far UF moves up..if they beat FSU.)


Alas
Go Gators! Beat FSU and Arkansas!
Only Gators get out of the BCS alive!

4 Comments:

At 3:03 PM, November 20, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Below is a comparison of the 3 top contenders for the BCS title game.If Florida beats Arkansas and is denied the shot to play in the titlegame then the SEC should withdraw from the NCAA.

This would be the greatest travesty of sport's injustice in my lifetime. Someone needs to email this study to all of the voters and the computer guys.

I used the USA Today top 25 for the top 25 rankings and thereafter I used the CFN/Scout top 119 poll.

Comparing Wins Best to Worst. This Assumes a Win by Florida in the SECCG.

USC

Arkansas #5
Notre Dame #6
Nebraska #19
California #22
UCLA #27--- 6-5
Arizona #32--- 6-5
Oregon St. #31--- 7-4 LOSS
Oregon #37--- 7-4
Arizona St. #46--- 6-5
Wash St. #54--- 6-6
Washington #56--- 5-7
Stanford #99--- 1-10

Michigan

Ohio St. #1 12-0 LOSS
N. Dame #6
Wisconsin #9
Penn State #38--- 8-4
Minnesota #47--- 6-6
Vanderbilt #48--- 4-8
Indiana #50 5-7
Iowa #51--- 6-6
C. Michigan #60--- 7-4
Mich. St. #68--- 4-8
Northwestern #83 4-8
Ball St. #95--- 4-7

Florida

Arkansas #5
LSU #8
Auburn #13 LOSS
So. Miss #53---7-4
Tennessee #21
Kentucky #35--- 7-4
Georgia #36--- 7-4
S. Carolina #43 6-5
Alabama #44--- 6-6
Vanderbilt #48--- 4-7
Florida St. #49--- 6-5
C. Florida #93--- 3-8
W Carolina Div 1-AA 2-9

Comparing the ONE Loss

Florida loses to #13 MI loses to #1 USC loses to #31

Advantage in order of quality of loss to Michigan, Florida then USC.

USC------MI----Florida
#5 ---- #6--- #5 ----- Advantage Tie USC FLorida
#6 ---- #9 -- #8 ----- Advantage USC
#19 -- #38 -- #13 ----- Advantage Florida
#22 -- #47 -- #21 ----- Advantage Florida
#27 -- #48 -- #35 ----- Advantage USC
#32 -- #50 -- #36 ----- Advantage USC
#37 -- #51 -- #43 ----- Advantage USC
#46 -- #60 -- #44 ----- Advantage Florida
#54 -- #68 -- #48 ----- Advantage Florida
#56 -- #83 -- #49 ----- Advantage Florida
#99 -- #95 -- #93 ----- Advantage Florida
Florida has the extra win over Div 1AA WCU

Florida has the advantage 6 to 4 games over USC with a tie with Arkansas.

Notice who has no advantages in the win categories. Michigan
Michigan's only advantage is in their loss. They're not even close withthe rest of their schedule. The talk from ESPN just shows how illinformed they really are.

Maybe someone will take the time to email this to ESPN and all of their EXPERTS.

Florida's loss is a far better loss than USC which gives them an advantage of 7 games to 4 when comparing all games played.

So, to break it down.

Florida has advantage in Quality Wins 7 to 4 over USC
Florida has advantage in Quality Loss over USC

Florida has advantage in Quality Wins 11 to 0 over Michigan
Michigan has advantage in Quality Loss over Florida.

Now, who should go to the BCS Title Game?

Anyone with a brain can see it's The Gators.

 
At 9:29 PM, November 20, 2006, Blogger Sam Hudson said...

I agree with you Adam. Very good analysis. But I could have sworn I saw this somewhere else too. ESPN? lol

But I try to stay away from this strength of schedule argument. I feel we have the strongest schedule... there is no debate there from me. For everyone else no one ever gives in their schedule is weeker whether its usc, um, osu, arky or fl.

I was tryin to concentrate on what happened from here on out.

 
At 6:13 PM, November 21, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that table might be wrong. Here's what it should read.

USC------MI----Florida
#5 ---- #6--- #5 ----- Advantage Tie USC FLorida
#6 ---- #9 -- #8 ----- Advantage USC
#19 -- #38 -- #21 ----- Advantage USC
#22 -- #47 -- #35 ----- Advantage USC
#27 -- #48 -- #36 ----- Advantage USC
#32 -- #50 -- #43 ----- Advantage USC
#37 -- #51 -- #44 ----- Advantage USC
#46 -- #60 -- #48 ----- Advantage USC
#54 -- #68 -- #49 ----- Advantage Florida
#56 -- #83 -- #53 ----- Advantage Florida
#99 -- #95 -- #93 ----- Advantage Florida

I guess that gives USC the edge if they win out. Still, the Gators should be next in line if USC were to lose.

 
At 4:12 PM, November 27, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Updated Analysis

Florida

Arkansas #8
LSU #5
Auburn #11 LOSS
Tennessee #19
Kentucky #35--- 7-5
Georgia #29--- 8-4
S. Carolina #33--- 7-5

USC

Arkansas #8
Notre Dame #12
Nebraska #18
California #20
Oregon St. #28--- LOSS
UCLA #NR
Oregon #NR

USC---Florida
#8 --- #5 ----- Advantage FLorida
#12 --- #8 ----- Advantage Florida
#18 -- #19 ----- Advantage USC
#20 -- #29 ----- Advantage USC
#NR -- #33 ----- Advantage Florida
#NR -- #35 ----- Advantage Florida

Updated Rankings using the USA Today poll for just the teams good enough to get votes, and cutting out Michigan who doesnt deserve a rematch. This table actually gives Florida the edge if my calculations are correct.

I give Kentucky #35 even though they didnt get any votes because I assume they didnt move down any after almost beating Tennessee. If Nebraska loses the Big 12 championship they will drop below Tennessee and Florida will gain another advantage.

How about the SEC domination this week? Georgia and South Carolina beating OOC ranked teams and Florida of course beating the rival Noles on the road. Just a sign of more to come when the SEC shows how good they really are in the december bowls.

 

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